Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran"s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing ...
U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky
The University of Michigan"s consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 in April from 79.4, according to data released on Friday.
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
With spreads on corporate bonds easing, borrowing by firms will bolster a sustained expansion and an economy that outperforms expectations this year.
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
The American economy continued to show resilience in March, adding 303,000 jobs as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%.
Federal Reserve”s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term.
U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening
The data is not likely to change the Federal Reserve"s course on monetary policy, with the central bank likely to hold rates steady at its May meeting.
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee"s policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks…
Industrial production rises to highest level in three months
Overall industrial production volume rose by 0.1% on the back of robust manufacturing production, which grew by 0.8% on the month, the Federal ...
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
Inflation remains below wage growth as real hourly wages increased by 1.1% on the month and on a year-ago basis.
Softer economic data helps ease inflation concerns
The softer data in manufacturing activities, construction spending and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year should alleviate concerns ...
Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency
Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG.
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the ...
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January's data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development.
Fed survey shows further improvement in financial conditions
The worst of monetary tightening for the financial market may be behind us, according to the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey ...
U.S. economy booms at a 3.3% pace in the fourth quarter
The U.S. economy last year expanded by a robust, above-trend pace of 3.1% and a fourth quarter pace on a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.3%.
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