Real Economy Blog

The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization

The post-pandemic era and the end of hyper-globalization

The American economy is in the midst of a long-lasting structural change following the severe shocks unleashed by the pandemic.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes

Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points as it prepares to slow pace of hikes

The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range between 3.75% and 4% as it hinted at slowing the pace ...
End of an era? Bond market selloff prompts a new regime

End of an era? Bond market selloff prompts a new regime

The dramatic fiscal and monetary response to the pandemic has elicited a structural break in globalization, growth and liquidity regimes that ...
Inflation remains hot, sticky and elevated, implying another supersized rate hike

Inflation remains hot, sticky and elevated, implying another supersized rate hike

Both top-line and core inflation remain hot, sticky and elevated, which implies another rate increase of 75 basis points at the Fed's November meeting.
Consumer confidence and core investment grow despite recession fear

Consumer confidence and core investment grow despite recession fear

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose above market's expectation to 108 in September, the highest since May.
Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points and sees more increases

Fed raises its policy rate by 75 basis points and sees more increases

The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points on Wednesday, the third straight increase of that size and a sign that it is ...
U.S. August CPI: Core inflation arrives hot even as gas prices fall

U.S. August CPI: Core inflation arrives hot even as gas prices fall

Premature calls for the Fed to pause its campaign to tame inflation should be politely dismissed given the 0.1% increase in top-line inflation ...
Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply

Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was blunt in his remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyo.: “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained ...
Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels

Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels

The U.S. unemployment rate now stands at 3.458%, the lowest rate in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our ...
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand

U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand

Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. With such a robust labor market, claims ...
Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle

Monetary policy tightening, the bond market and the business cycle

Economic shocks including inflation, interest rate increases and energy market turmoil are hitting the global economy and showing up in fixed ...
FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week

FOMC policy decision preview: Fed to hike lending rate .75% next week

A 100-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate will be on the table during the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week, but we ...
Latest jobless claims and producer inflation show upside surprises

Latest jobless claims and producer inflation show upside surprises

New filings for jobless benefits last week rose by 3.8% to 244,000 while producer inflation rose by a surprisingly strong 1.1% in June.
Changes in Fed policy and their impact on the economy

Changes in Fed policy and their impact on the economy

The Federal Reserve's changes to short-term interest rates will affect the stock of money, which directly determines the direction of the real economy.
Fed announces largest rate hike in nearly three decades as it seeks to restore price stability

Fed announces largest rate hike in nearly three decades as it seeks to restore price stability

The Federal Reserve lifted its federal funds policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75% on Wednesday as it moves to restore price stability ...

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