Real Economy Blog

Labor data shows economic strength as inflation concerns linger

Labor data shows economic strength as inflation concerns linger

Despite a slowdown in productivity and rising labor unit costs, the economy continues to show strength with initial jobless claims staying near ...
Fed holds rates steady as rebound in inflation hampers progress

Fed holds rates steady as rebound in inflation hampers progress

Citing a lack of progress in reducing inflation, the Federal Reserve kept its policy rate unchanged at 5.5% at its meeting on Wednesday, the ...
GDP growth slows to 1.6% in first quarter, exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data

GDP growth slows to 1.6% in first quarter, exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data

Overall growth in U.S. gross domestic product fell to 1.6% in the first quarter, but the slowdown was exaggerated by volatile trade and ...
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery

Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery

Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran"s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing ...
U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky

U.S. consumer sentiment falls as inflation stays sticky

The University of Michigan"s consumer sentiment index fell to 77.9 in April from 79.4, according to data released on Friday.
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing

Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing

With spreads on corporate bonds easing, borrowing by firms will bolster a sustained expansion and an economy that outperforms expectations this year.
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth

U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth

The American economy continued to show resilience in March, adding 303,000 jobs as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%.
Federal Reserve”s policy path points to a rate cut in June

Federal Reserve”s policy path points to a rate cut in June

Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term.
U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening

U.S. economy remained resilient in first quarter amid signs of future softening

The data is not likely to change the Federal Reserve"s course on monetary policy, with the central bank likely to hold rates steady at its May meeting.
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024

Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024

The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee"s policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks…
Industrial production rises to highest level in three months

Industrial production rises to highest level in three months

Overall industrial production volume rose by 0.1% on the back of robust manufacturing production, which grew by 0.8% on the month, the Federal ...
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control

February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control

Inflation remains below wage growth as real hourly wages increased by 1.1% on the month and on a year-ago basis.
Softer economic data helps ease inflation concerns

Softer economic data helps ease inflation concerns

The softer data in manufacturing activities, construction spending and consumer sentiment at the beginning of the year should alleviate concerns ...
Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency

Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency

Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG.
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored

Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored

The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the ...

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